Optimum population, foreign trade and world economy

The paper embodies an attempt to develop the rudiments of a theory of the population optimum for a component national member of a regional or world economy. The starting point for such a theory is provided by conventional optimum theory. In §1 the principal components of conventional theory are indicated and an appraisal is made of the contributions to it by the recent works of Sauvy and Mukerjee. In §2 it is pointed out that conventional theory deals with a closed economy and that the mode of operation of the fundamental tendencies posited by it, increasing and diminishing returns, were altered in important ways through interweaving with a larger trading universe. It was indicated that these complications had not been adequately assimilated into optimum theory by previous discussion which tended to give one-sided, partial or conflicting explanations, and that a more thorough theoretical exploration was needed. In §3 this exploration is commenced by defining a concept of a 'foreign trade optimum' which takes account of such factors as 'risk' and 'security' and focuses upon the relationship between population size and real terms of trade by studying the variation of import requirements and export capacity. Under simplified assumptions the conclusion is reached that this relationship has the general properties of a 'bell-shaped curve' and that a 'synthetic optimum' will emerge maximizing the returns from domestic and from foreign trade. In §4 the plausibility of this hypothesis is examined and illustrated by reference to the case of cotton production in America, Germany after World War II and Jewish Palestine. A brief discussion of the assumptions involved in the hypothesis indicates complications which in any given case would require careful empirical research. In the concluding section certain observations are put forth regarding the influence of institutional assumptions, the extent to which the foreign trade optimum is changeable and is measurable.

Английский

Population Studies. – 1949. – Vol. 3, № 2. – P. 151–169.