Determinants of democratization

Cambridge University Press

2010

xi, 208 p.

9780521199063

Introduction. Factors driving and not driving the third wave ; Institutions under authoritarianism ; Theoretical implications ; Policy implications ; Plan of the book --Explaining democratization. The structural approach ; The strategic approach ; The social forces tradition ; the economic approach ; The present approach : theoretical eclecticism, methods combined --The shadow of the past : social determinants. The literature on domestic social determinants ; Empirical results ; Islam and democracy ; Why are small countries more likely to democratize? ; Conclusion --The power of prosperity : economic determinants. Modernization, performance and resource abundance ; Economic inequality and freedom ; Socioeconomic modernization and democratic recalcitrance ; Economic crises and authoritarian vulnerability ; Conclusion --The impetus from abroad : international determinants. The literature on international determinants ; Empirical results ; Trade dependency and stalled democratization ; What explains neighbor diffusion? ; Do regional organizations foster democratization? ; Conclusion --The force from below : popular mobilization. The literature and empirical results ; Why are peaceful demonstrations conducive to democratization? ; Conclusion --Exogenous shocks and authoritarian regime types : institutional contingency. Types of authoritarian regimes and democratization ; Estimation strategy ; Empirical results ; Conclusion --Conclusions. Summary of findings ; Explanatory performance ; Towards an integrated theory of democratization? ; Lessons for the future study of democratization ; Lessons for democracy promotion ; Lessons for the future of democratization --Appendix. Data and variable definitions ; Statistical model ; Robustness tests ; The pathway criterion.

Английский